Introduction to Causal Inference

The eight basic rules for causal inference from Peder M. Isager’s blog provide an excellent framework for understanding how causal relationships emerge and interact with observable data. These rules resonate with core principles in both systems thinking and Ashtanga Yoga. Let’s explore this connection.

1. Independent Variables are Not Correlated

In systems thinking, an independent variable can be seen as an external input or a system component that does not directly influence other parts. This rule aligns with the yogic principle of detachment (Vairagya) where actions devoid of expectations (causal independence) do not entangle one in their outcomes.

2. Causal Influence Creates Correlation

This mirrors the idea in systems thinking that feedback loops (positive or negative) generate observable patterns. In yoga, cause-effect chains are understood through karma, where actions (causes) produce specific outcomes (effects), reinforcing the system of samskaras (imprints).

3. Confounding Creates Correlation

Confounding variables in causal inference equate to hidden feedback loops in systems thinking. In Ashtanga, our vasanas (latent tendencies) act as confounders, influencing how we perceive reality and creating correlations between unrelated events.

4. Random Manipulation Protects from Causal Influence

Randomized interventions in systems prevent external confounders from influencing outcomes. Similarly, the disciplined and systematic approach in yoga sequences protects the practitioner from random mental or physical disruptions, aligning actions with intended outcomes (e.g., mental clarity).

5. Controlling for a Confounder Blocks Spurious Correlation

This aligns with the systems approach of addressing root causes rather than symptoms. In yoga, observing yamas and niyamas (ethical codes) clears confounders like dishonesty or overindulgence, allowing the true self (atman) to manifest.

6. Controlling for a Mediator Blocks Mediated Causal Effect

Both systems thinking and yoga teach that certain mediators need adjustment to break undesired causal chains. For instance, breath control (pranayama) mediates between the body and mind, directly influencing meditative states.

7. Controlling for a Collider Leads to Correlation

In systems thinking, colliders can create unexpected dependencies when manipulated. In Ashtanga, over-focusing on intermediate goals (like flexibility) can create unintended dependencies, such as prioritizing aesthetics over the deeper purpose of practice.

8. Controlling for a Causal Descendant Partially Controls for the Ancestor

Adjusting descendant elements (e.g., addressing stress symptoms like muscle tension) can indirectly address root causes (e.g., mental agitation). This aligns with yoga’s holistic philosophy: healing the body (asana) can ease the mind (chitta).

Practical Intersections: Systems Thinking, Ashtanga, and Causal Rules

Systemic Feedback in Yoga Practice: Just as a causal loop in a system shapes behavior, sequences in yoga are designed to produce specific physiological and psychological states. Holistic Adjustment: Adjusting one variable (e.g., diet or breath) in yoga impacts the broader system of body-mind-spirit, reflecting causal principles of mediation and confounding. Iterative Learning: Both systems thinking and yoga emphasize constant feedback and adjustment to refine the practice and achieve harmony.

By integrating causal reasoning with yoga, we not only deepen our understanding of how actions shape results but also align practices with the systemic wisdom that Ashtanga embodies.